Best / Worst Case Cigarroa

The Cigarroa Toros are hoping for better things in 2010 after a disappointing winless 2009 campaign. Second year head coach Frank De Hoyos as rededicated his team's offense to a smash mouth running style and he's got the biggest offensive line in Laredo paving the way. On the defensive side of the ball, Cigarroa is trying to get back in touch with its Wrecking Crew roots as it styles itself in the mold of dominant football teams from the late 80s and early 90s. The success of the team will ride on whether or not a retro approach can still win games in the second decade of the new Millennium.

BEST CASE

The Toros open their season with a road trip to San Antonio for a game against the Memorial Minutemen. Memorial hasn't won a game since 2005 and a big win here would be a strong opening statement towards a best case year.

Cigarroa then has an off week before opening district play with a game against the Nixon Tigers. Nixon went 1-9 last year and might still be working out the growing pains under first year head coach Tommy Ramirez. This game was decided by 8 points in 2009, a 14-22 loss. A low scoring game where Cigarroa's power running game eeks out the win would give the Toros a 2-0 start.

Cigarroa's third game of the season is against Martin at Krueger Field. Martin was devastated by a power running game behind a large offensive line in a pre-season scrimmage against Brownsville Porter, and Cigarroa's line is even bigger than Porter's. Martin's spread offense will keep things competitive and a high scoring shoot out between opposite offensive styles will tip Cigarroa's way in a best case scenario for a 3-0 start.

The Mavericks of Eagle Pass Winn will come to town for Cigarroa's fourth game of the season. Winn is the weakest of the out of town schools and only won 3 games a season ago. Playing the Mavericks at home will give Cigarroa the boost they need to win a hard fought game giving them a 4-0 start in a best case scenario.

The first four games are the most winnable on the schedule, and the season's difficulty will ramp up in week five when the Toros face LBJ. LBJ blew Cigarroa apart last year in a 14-42 effort. This game likely boils down to a running back duel between LBJ's Flores and Cigarroa's Macias. If the ball bounces Cigarroa's way, they could be standing at 5-0 midway through the season.

Week six will feature a very strong opponent when the Toros face the Alexander Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are expected to be one of 29-5A's playoff contenders and are probably out of reach of Cigarroa in 2010. Even in a best case scenario a win over Alexander is probably too much to expect, putting Cigarroa at 5-1.

A hard game against Alexander will be followed by equally stiff competition from United. A win here is unlikely, resulting in a 5-2 record for Cigarroa.

An October 21 game against United South will be Cigarroa's easiest game of its last five, but that doesn't make it a win. United south will likely be too much for Cigarroa to overcome, making Cigarroa 5-3 on the season.

Cigarroa will have its first road game since August on October 29 when the Toros travel to Eagle Pass. Eagle Pass should be one of the top four teams in the district and a win, especially on the road, is likely too much to expect. 5-4

Cigarroa's final game will also be the final game played at Krueger field when Del Rio comes to town. Del Rio may well have its throne as division champion locked down by this game, but don’t expect that to have them snoozing. Del Rio probably gets the best of Cigarroa en route to a postseason in the playoffs.

The best case season for Cigarroa wraps up at 5-5. The easy games all come early and Cigarroa will have to make the most of those early games as it won't have many chances later in the season to make up for early losses. A 5-5 season (4-5 in district) would put Cigarroa just outside the playoff picture, but it would have the Toros feeling good entering 2011.

WORST CASE

Cigarroa's worst case scenario would begin with a nightmarish loss in San Antonio to Memorial. If the Toros new offense struggled out of the gate and Memorial scores early, Cigarroa will not be in a very good position to make up for that lost ground and get back into the game. A worst case scenario would begin with handing Memorial its first win in five years.

If Cigarroa loses to Memorial in week one, it will be hard to predict another win for the Toros for the rest of the season. Nixon, Martin, Eagle Pass Winn and LBJ may all bring just enough firepower to outdistance themselves from a struggling Toros squad. Giving Cigarroa an 0-5 start.

Even in the best of cases, the final five games are probably out of reach. This would mean a worst case scenario would result in a second straight winless year for the Toros.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

Of course, the Toros will probably fall in somewhere between the two extremes. Of those first five games I'd give them the early nod over Memorial and Martin, with Eagle Pass Winn being as predictable as the flip of a coin. Giving Cigarroa the benefit of the doubt, I'll say they turn in a three win season in 2010.